This is my trade journal.
By the time you’re reading this, the trade is already over but I’m sharing it to give you insight into my thinking process and how I approach setups like this.
Chronicle ($XNL) was one of those rare high-conviction short setups that aligned perfectly with on-chain data, timing, and sentiment. The trade took shape right before its Token Generation Event (TGE) on October 29, 2025, when every indicator flashed red.
Smart traders were exiting, institutional wallets stayed silent, and liquidity was paper-thin just $1,300 in total 7-day volume. On top of that, the price had already started collapsing from a pre-TGE pump of $0.00584, losing nearly 45% in two days.
The fundamentals didn’t lie. XNL had a 326× dilution gap between its $153K market cap and a $50M fully diluted valuation. With newly unlocked tokens flooding the market and no Smart Money accumulation in sight, this was a textbook “sell the news” setup.
The trade played out exactly as planned. Momentum continued to fade post-TGE, and I closed the position 100% in profit.
This trade reinforced a timeless rule: when Smart Money exits and retail FOMO enters, follow the data – not the hype.
Recommended Reading : Shorting Day-One CEX Listings: How Smart Money Turns Hype Into Exit Liquidity
